Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure escalated sharply on July 25, when the group struck Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu with missiles and drones. The strikes, which the Houthis said were retaliation for Saudi-led coalition airstrikes on their positions in Hodeidah, have pushed commercial transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to their lowest level in months.
The confrontation threatens to disrupt global crude flows through two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints simultaneously.
A widening campaign
The July 25 strikes followed a rapid sequence of escalations. On July 13, a Yemeni government airstrike hit Sanaa airport, prompting Houthi threats against Saudi airports and ports. A week later, the group declared a "naval navigation ban" on Saudi Arabia.
By July 26, Houthi forces claimed they had attacked three Saudi-linked tankers within 48 hours and shot down a Saudi reconnaissance drone in Al-Jawf province. The group reiterated on July 27 that it would continue enforcing the maritime ban and threatened to blockade Saudi ports.
Shipping data signals strain
The Red Sea shipping disruption is already visible in transit data. Only 11 commercial vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 26, according to maritime analytics firm Kpler — the lowest daily count in months.
The strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and handles a significant share of global oil and container traffic. A sustained drop in transits typically forces vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to journeys and raising freight costs.
Dual-chokepoint risk
The Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure carry particular weight because Jizan and Yanbu host refineries and export terminals that handle Saudi crude shipments. Any prolonged disruption to those assets would tighten an already sensitive market.
The escalation has amplified oil supply geopolitical risk by threatening two critical maritime chokepoints at once. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil exports passes, already faces pressure from tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Houthi action in the Red Sea adds a second front of disruption, compounding the risk premium embedded in crude prices.
What remains uncertain
The extent of damage to the Aramco facilities has not been independently confirmed. Saudi authorities have not released a detailed assessment, and it remains unclear whether the Houthis can sustain attacks on heavily defended energy infrastructure.
The coalition's response will be a key variable. Its July 25 airstrikes on Hodeidah suggest a willingness to escalate, but a broader military campaign could further destabilize shipping lanes.
Shipping insurers, oil traders and governments will be watching whether the Bab el-Mandeb transit decline deepens and whether the Houthis follow through on their threat to blockade Saudi ports. That will determine whether the current risk premium in oil markets proves temporary or structural.